Will Mexican President Sheinbaum deviate from the policies of his predecessor AMLO? | Political news

Monterrey, Mexico – Claudia Sheinbaum took office after a landslide victory in the presidential election that made her Mexico’s first female leader. Having received around 60 percent of the vote, Sheinbaum is poised to replicate the high levels of popularity that his predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, achieved through policies primarily focused on reducing poverty and inequality.

It is not yet clear how Sheinbaum will use her power over the next six years, but she will inherit major challenges, including a series of controversial constitutional reforms, organized crime and violence, and the task of governing for Mexicans.

Before her presidential bid, Sheinbaum, an environmental specialist, served as Mexico City’s environment secretary during Lopez Obrador’s tenure as mayor of the capital. She was also a member of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Despite her expertise in climate change, this 62-year-old woman has remained loyal to Lopez Obrador and his pro-hydrocarbon energy policy.

In 2018, Sheinbaum became Mexico City’s first female mayor, a position she held until resigning last year to pursue her presidential aspirations.

Sheinbaum will seek to continue the more successful policies of López Obrador, known as AMLO. He rose to power with the promise of a Cuarta Transformacion (Fourth Transformation, known as the 4Ts in Spanish), which included ending corruption, reducing violence, and expanding social programs. Improving poverty indicators is one of the major achievements and proudest legacies of the outgoing government.

From 2018 to 2022, more than five million Mexicans escaped poverty, according to the latest report from the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL). This is partly explained by a significant increase in the general minimum daily wage, which rose from 88.15 pesos to 248.93 pesos (approximately $4.50 to $14.50 at the current rate) during the same period.

Estefania Vela, director of Intersecta, a feminist nonprofit organization dedicated to promoting public policies for equality, explained that under the AMLO administration, historically marginalized people felt seen and experienced an improvement in their life. “These are not only symbolic achievements, but also material changes in the daily lives of millions of people,” Vela said.

Although poverty rates have declined, significant challenges remain for President Sheinbaum. Extreme poverty increased by 400,000 people, from 8.7 million to 9.1 million between 2018 and 2022. In addition, CONEVAL warned of a growing lack of access to health and social services. education. The number of people without access to health services increased from 20.1 million to 50.4 million during the same period.

Marlene Solis, professor of social sciences at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF), argued that AMLO’s rise to power and popularity should be seen as a major success of a social movement – ​​the 4T – which is often neglected and which “sets the minimum standards”. foundations for change” during this presidential term. “It’s not just him, but many people behind this project that has been in the works for at least 30 years,” Solis added.

Continuity and changes

Sheinbaum promised to continue AMLO’s signature policies, including a series of proposed constitutional changes that have already begun to be approved. Morena, the ruling political party, and its allies now control Congress and the majority of the country’s 32 states.

In mid-September, AMLO, with Sheinbaum’s support, passed a controversial constitutional amendment that overhauled Mexico’s justice system. All judges, including members of the Supreme Court, will be elected by popular vote. The reform also introduces the figure of “faceless judges” supposed to protect them from threats. However, international human rights organizations oppose the measure, arguing that it violates the accused’s right to a fair trial.

The reform sparked strikes and a wave of protests in major cities by law students and judicial sector employees. Critics say the bill will strengthen Morena’s power and undermine checks on presidential authority. Investors were also alarmed by the bill and the peso – Mexico’s currency – fell in the days leading up to the vote.

Despite opposition to the bill, Sheinbaum immediately gave his support once the bill passed, saying it would “strengthen the administration of justice” in Mexico.

Last week, Mexico also approved a reform that gives the military control of the civilian-led national guard. Other constitutional amendments awaiting approval include reforms that would reduce government transparency and expand automatic pretrial detention.

“When we talk about (AMLO’s) legacy, I think we have to reconcile the two. A character who represents the arrival of those who have been systematically forgotten, but who, at the same time, has promoted reforms that risk further worsening inequalities instead of resolving them,” Vela said.

Often described as AMLO’s “puppet,” Sheinbaum ran his campaign under the slogan “continuity with change.” Although many voters remain curious about the details of this change, Sheinbaum is expected to begin his term with a hybrid approach. She will likely continue AMLO’s policies, but also introduce new initiatives, particularly in areas affecting working-class women.

AMLO, who has failed to effectively combat gender-based violence, has cut funding for women’s shelters. He frequently mocked the feminist movement, accusing feminists of being manipulated by his opponents. He also often presented himself as a victim, even saying that the criticism he received could be considered a form of gender-based violence.

This is probably one of the areas where Sheinbaum is charting a different path than AMLO. Although she will continue her controversial policies, including the militarization of public security, which is associated with increased risks for women and girls, her government has pledged to focus on addressing inequalities affecting women.

Both Vela and Solis discussed the new president’s promise to establish the “National Care System,” aimed at promoting women’s development and autonomy by supporting unpaid care work traditionally carried out by women.

“It’s a very significant change if they can establish this system of care,” Solis said. “One of the challenges we have identified for many women is the lack of infrastructure and care services to support the care that the government is obliged to provide. »

Confrontations

The contradiction marked the 4T. While much of the population felt seen and heard by the government for the first time, significant concerns such as organized crime, violence and growing military influence overshadowed AMLO’s administration.

Criticisms were often seen as partisan attacks or political maneuvering. During his six-year term, AMLO dominated the news cycle with lengthy morning press conferences watched by millions. He has frequently used this platform to directly attack critics, including human rights defenders, non-profit organizations and families of the disappeared.

Martin Villalobos, spokesperson for the “Movimiento por Nuestros Desaparecidos en México”, a movement that brings together more than 60 collectives of families of the disappeared, recognizes that at the beginning the AMLO government made significant progress. For the first time, he recognized the mass disappearance of people in the country and created institutions like the National Research Commission. However, this progress was later reversed, leading the government to criticize the families’ movement.

“The issue (of the disappearances) was no longer important to the administration, and even less so when political connotations arose that denigrated us,” Villalobos said.

Sheinbaum echoed AMLO’s rhetoric, saying the current disappearances in Mexico are carried out by criminals rather than the state, despite family testimonies indicating the involvement of the military and police in many case.

The families of the missing called on Sheinbaum to initiate a national dialogue aimed at developing a program to search for their loved ones and achieve justice.

Villalobos expressed hope that the new president would not begin her term with a confrontation with the families or implementing policies that could lead to such a confrontation.

COLEF’s Solis said some issues, such as violence, proved difficult to resolve, contributing to greater distance and discomfort during AMLO’s administration. This was largely due to his direct and confrontational tone. For his part, Sheinbaum promised to govern for all.

“I think Claudia will try to rebuild relations with these sectors of the population,” Solís added. “There’s a part of Claudia’s speech about not generating so much tension.”