What They Don’t Tell You in This Cheerful Speech About Reducing Crime

On October 1, 2024By Rgal Nv

It’s easy to understand why some are a little cynical when the FBI reports, just five weeks before the presidential election, that violent crime has declined in 2023. Negative public perceptions of crime have been a challenge for the Biden-Harris administration. However, some surveys have found no significant decline in violent crime rates. More importantly, the FBI fails to mention a crime statistic that has been omnipresent in the news in recent years: shoplifting.

According to the FBI report, “estimates of crime statistics, based on reported data for 2023, show that violent crime nationally decreased approximately 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates “. Although it would be nice if this were true, it is not a significant drop.

The report also claims that non-negligent murders and homicides decreased by 11.6 percent, rapes by 9.4 percent and robberies by 0.3 percent. In contrast, motor vehicle thefts increased by 12.6 percent.

Why should we be skeptical of the FBI’s findings? On the one hand, it relies on “the participation of law enforcement”. And some agencies don’t participate, including the Los Angeles Police Department. Additionally, if people don’t report a crime to the police, it likely won’t be counted.

There’s more. Jeffrey H. Anderson, former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), recalls in the Wall Street Journal that the Bureau conducts its own survey, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The study relies on responses from some 230,000 households, rather than those from law enforcement, and finds that violent crime increased by 19% between 2019 and 2023. Anderson also points out that the crime rate violent incidents in urban areas are increasing even faster: up 54% between 2019 and 2023, which is more in line with public perception. Rural and suburban violent crime rates are virtually unchanged during this period.

But what has garnered so much attention in recent years is the rampant rise in brazen shoplifting. In many cases, several thieves, sometimes armed, rush into stores and make off with thousands of dollars of merchandise. In other cases, it may just be one or two thieves, casually browsing the aisles of a store and tossing expensive items into bags.

The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), which “examines monthly crime rates for 12 violent, property, and drug offenses in 39 U.S. cities,” released its mid-year report in June. According to the CCJ, almost all crime rates declined between the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, with the exception of “reported shoplifting rates, a crime that has received the attention of the media and policy makers, which increased by 24%.

In its most recent report, released a year ago, the National Retail Federation (NRF) noted: “As incidents of retail crime continue to escalate across the country, retailers have seen a dramatic increase in financial losses associated with theft. As a percentage of total retail sales in 2022, shrinkage accounted for $112.1 billion in losses, up from $93.9 billion in 2021.” other types of losses.)

The explosion in retail theft has led many companies to close stores in several urban areas, both due to unsustainable losses and out of concern for employee safety. The NRF says: “Retailers reported being forced to close a specific store (28%), reduce opening hours (45%) or reduce or change in-store product selection (30%) as a result direct impact of retail crime. »

Two-thirds of retailers said criminals were becoming even more aggressive. Result: “more and more retailers have chosen to apply a “hands-off” approach to arresting shoplifters. More respondents said no employees are authorized to stop or apprehend shoplifters (41%), compared to 38% last year.

If Anderson is correct that urban crime is increasing while suburban and rural crime is decreasing or remaining stable, the explanation could lie in progressive policies like “defunding the police” as well as significant increases in the amount that Thieves are allowed to steal (for example, $950) before it is considered a crime.

From a thief’s point of view, why break into a home, likely located in a low income area, where there is little value to steal when the thief can break into a pharmacy or department store in San Francisco, Chicago or New York and take thousands of people. of goods worth several dollars and no one will stop him?

This is Willie Sutton’s famous answer. When Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, he replied: “Because that’s where the money is.” » In big blue cities where there are very progressive district attorneys, mayors and city councils who wink at rampant theft, retail stores are where the money (or the goods).

So even if crime is down or stable in certain categories, this may be because criminals have found a more lucrative and safer way to practice their profession. Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris and the media want to tout new FBI statistics on falling crime. But the real story is the increase in retail theft as a direct result of their progressive policies.

Merrill Matthews is a political and public policy analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitles Cliff.” Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.

For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming videos, visit The Hill.