2024 New York Giants Futures Odds: Can Big Blue Bounce Back?

The Giants were a surprise team in the 2022 playoffs, even winning a round before losing to that year’s eventual NFC champion Eagles. Some expected the Giants to continue that level of success in 2023, but it turned out to be a nightmare, a six-win campaign that earned New York the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Now in their third year with Brian Daboll as head coach, oddsmakers expect the Giants to be closer to the 2023 version of the team than the 2022 team that won nine games.

It’s hard to blame the bookmakers, as the Giants lack talent at every level of the roster and have a major question mark at the most important position in sports: quarterback. Let’s dive into their outlook for the 2024 season and see if we can find value there.

2024 New York Giants Futures Odds

As you can see, the bookmakers aren’t expecting much from the Giants. FanDuel is most optimistic about their playoff run at +360, which works out to a 21.74% chance using an odds calculator. This makes sense, as bookmakers are pricing the Giants’ win total at 6.5 games overall, with the under being the most likely outcome based on these odds.

As mentioned before, it’s hard to argue otherwise, as this team is devoid of talent on both sides of the ball.

2024 New York Giants Betting Predictions

In case you forgot how bad the Giants were last year, here’s a refresher: They were the third-worst team in the NFL, according to opponent-adjusted DVOA, the statistic that ranked New York’s offense third-worst in the league and its defense 21st.

Even their special teams (No. 21, by DVOA) was nothing special.

If PFF is your favorite advanced statistic, well, it doesn’t get any better than this. PFF ranked the Giants as the worst team in the NFL, with the second-worst offense and sixth-worst defense. Make no mistake: This Giants team was awful last year, and they’ve been awful every year since 2016, with the exception of the aforementioned 2022 season. Will they win at least seven this year? Well, let’s get to it.

Can Malik Nabers bring a spark to a lifeless offense?

Daniel Jones is now entering his sixth year in the NFL, and here’s how the Giants’ offense has fared according to DVOA over the previous four years (excluding his rookie year):

• 2020: 25th
• 2021: 32nd (last)
• 2022: 16th
• 2023: 30th

Even in the year the Giants made the playoffs, they still had a mediocre offense, and they were among the worst in the league both years. This isn’t entirely Jones’ fault, as the Giants have had a mediocre offensive line and underwhelming talent at the skill positions for much of his career, but the reality is that unfortunately that’s still the case heading into the 2024 season.

The Giants selected LSU receiver Malik Nabers with the No. 6 pick of the draft, and he has the potential to be a true No. 1 receiver in the NFL. But outside of Nabers, the Giants don’t have much. PFF ranks their receiving unit as the fifth-worst in the NFL. Things also look pretty bleak on the offensive line, as PFF has the Giants with the No. 29 ranked offensive line heading into 2024. To top it all off, PFF has the Giants with the No. 28 running backs after losing Saquon Barkley.

For those counting at home, that would be a bottom-five receiver, offensive line, and running back. Not great! Jones certainly doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with, but he also needs to do better himself. Even if the skill positions and offensive line are better in 2024, no team could win with Jones’ poor performance last year.

Jones was one of the league’s worst QBs in 2023 through six games before suffering a season-ending injury, and is now recovering from a torn ACL. Oddly enough, Jones was PFF’s third-ranked quarterback on his own team last year, ranking worse than Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor.

Can Shane Bowen improve the defense?

On defense, mediocrity would be an improvement over most of the Giants’ recent seasons. As bad as their offense has been, their defense hasn’t been much better. Here’s their defensive DVOA ranking year-by-year over the same four-year span:

• 2020: 22nd
• 2021: 25
• 2022: 30th
• 2023: 21st

Their 21st-place finish last year was the best defense the Giants have had in five years, and even with that, they still fired defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and brought in Shane Bowen, who was previously the Titans’ DC.

Even their defensive line — which includes some talent now that they added defensive end Brian Burns via trade with the Panthers, joining him with defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and DE Kayvon Thibodeaux — is just No. 18, according to PFF’s rankings.

Things aren’t looking great elsewhere, with the second-worst projected secondary, according to PFF. New York lost starting safety Xavier McKinney to free agency, and this team is young and inexperienced in every area of ​​the secondary.

While they have some good linebackers, the position has been devalued over the years in the NFL, and the solid core of linebackers led by Bobby Okereke and Micah McFadden isn’t enough to compensate for the holes along the line and in the secondary.

Best Bets for the New York Giants in 2024

Total wins: Under 6.5 (-130 Caesars)

If the Giants won six games or fewer, it would have been profitable every year since 2016 except for their surprising nine-win campaign in 2022, and 2024 looks set to be another year where that trend continues. Here’s New York’s track record, year by year, since 2017:

• 2017: 3-13
• 2018: 5-11
• 2019: 4-12
• 2020: 6-10
• 2021: 4-13
• 2022: 9-7-1
• 2023: 6-11

Despite adding an extra game to the schedule, the Giants have failed to win more than six games in two of the three years since the NFL expanded to 17 games. Even 2022 was somewhat of a fluke statistically, as the Giants finished that year ranked 23rd in DVOA.

Heading into 2024, PFF has this team as the second-worst team in the NFL, with question marks up and down the roster. The Giants also don’t have an easy schedule, as SharpFootballAnalysis has them as the 13th-most difficult strength of schedule. 2024 looks to be another rebuilding year for the Giants, making the play below average here.

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